A congressional contest in North Carolina’s 5th district is separated by just 99 votes, with Democrat Chuck Hubbard narrowly leading incumbent Republican Rep. Virginia Foxx. The razor-thin margin is among several close races following Tuesday’s midterm elections, drawing renewed attention to concerns about noncitizen voting and election integrity.
Explainer Noncitizen Voting in U.S. Elections: Risks, Realities, and Regulatory Challenges
The outcome could hinge on a handful of ballots, intensifying debate over whether current safeguards are sufficient to prevent ineligible voting. As the final votes are counted and the possibility of recounts looms, both parties are watching the process closely, aware that even a small number of disputed ballots could determine the winner.
Other races across the country are also being decided by slim margins. In North Carolina’s 3rd district, Republican Rep. Greg Murphy leads Democrat Raymond Smith by 233 votes. In Minnesota, Democrat Jake Johnson is ahead of Republican Rep. Brad Finstad by 321 votes, while in Tennessee’s 4th district, Democrat Victoria Broderick leads Republican Rep. Scott DesJarlais by 280 votes. These narrow differences have heightened scrutiny of the voting process and the systems in place to ensure only eligible voters participate.
New Jersey Noncitizen Voting Incident
The number of votes separating candidates in these races is smaller than the number of noncitizens who were recently found on New Jersey’s voter rolls. In July, Democrat Gov. Mikie Sherrill reported that a software error led to the registration of more than 6,000 noncitizens who had indicated their status when applying for a driver’s license. Nearly 400 of those noncitizens voted, a figure more than triple the margin in North Carolina’s 5th district. The New Jersey incident has been cited by some as evidence that even rare administrative errors can have significant consequences in close elections.
"A few hundred ballots may also be what stands between a Republican or Democrat taking a House seat."
— Brianna Lyman, elections correspondent
Debate on Noncitizen Voting Impact
There is no evidence that noncitizens have voted in any of the uncalled congressional races, but the close margins have fueled arguments that even rare instances of ineligible voting could affect outcomes. Critics argue that dismissing noncitizen voting as insignificant overlooks the potential impact in tight races. They point to the New Jersey case as an example of how administrative errors or gaps in the system can lead to ineligible individuals being registered and, in some cases, casting ballots.
Democrats and several media outlets have described noncitizen voting as rare. CBS News’ Leslie Stahl told then-Assistant Attorney General Harmeet Dhillon that “there are very few people who are noncitizen who end up voting.” Politico has called concerns about noncitizen voting “overblown,” though it acknowledged after the New Jersey incident that there is “little to stop noncitizens from registering to vote if they want to, or even by mistake.” This acknowledgment has added fuel to the ongoing debate, with some arguing that the current system relies too heavily on self-reporting and lacks sufficient safeguards.
Currently, prospective voters must attest to their citizenship under penalty of perjury, relying on what some describe as an honor system. This process is intended to deter ineligible individuals from registering, but critics argue that it is not foolproof. Republicans have introduced the SAVE America Act, which would require documentary proof of citizenship to register for federal elections and mandate voter ID at the polls. The legislation did not pass, facing opposition from Democrats and a lack of support from Republican Senate leadership. Supporters of the bill argue that requiring proof of citizenship and voter ID would help prevent ineligible voting and strengthen public confidence in election outcomes.
Supporters of stricter requirements argue that close races like those in North Carolina demonstrate the need for stronger safeguards. They contend that even a small number of ineligible votes could sway the outcome in districts where the margin is just a few hundred votes or less. Opponents of the SAVE America Act have not publicly addressed the renewed criticism following the latest election results, but have previously argued that such measures could disenfranchise eligible voters and create unnecessary barriers to participation.
The debate over noncitizen voting and election security is likely to continue as final vote counts and potential recounts proceed in several closely contested districts. With control of the House potentially hinging on a handful of ballots, both parties are expected to keep the focus on election integrity and the measures needed to ensure that only eligible voters determine the outcome.
