Democratic leaders in Texas are voicing concerns that their Senate nominee, James Talarico, is struggling to generate enthusiasm among Black voters, a key demographic for any Democratic path to victory in the state’s closely watched Senate contest.
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The race has become a focal point as Democrats attempt to build a coalition broad enough to challenge Republican dominance in Texas. Recent polling shows Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in a statistical tie, underscoring the competitiveness of the contest and the importance of turnout among core Democratic constituencies.
Talarico’s campaign has faced skepticism from Black Democrats since his narrow primary win over Rep. Jasmine Crockett. Crockett, who carried most majority-Black counties and precincts in Dallas, Fort Worth, and Houston, lost the March 3 primary by a margin of 52.4% to 46.2%. Although she endorsed Talarico after her defeat, Crockett later said she would not campaign for him, citing a lack of excitement among Black voters and raising questions about the campaign’s ability to unify the party’s base.
Democratic Concerns Over Turnout
Ashley Etienne, former communications director for Vice President Kamala Harris, highlighted these concerns on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” Etienne said Democratic operatives and elected officials in Texas are worried about “mild enthusiasm among Black voters” and the slow rollout of Talarico’s promised $25 million outreach effort. She noted that the campaign’s investments had yet to materialize and warned that waiting until Labor Day to engage Black voters could be a costly mistake for Democrats hoping to flip the seat.
"I personally don't feel like the excitement necessarily exists within the Black community … I don't feel like they're excited!"
— Jasmine Crockett, U.S. Representative
Crockett echoed these concerns on the “Front Page” podcast, saying she did not sense excitement for Talarico in the Black community. During the primary, she dominated Talarico in heavily Black precincts, winning 86% of the vote in Houston’s Harris County and nearly every East Texas county with a predominantly Black Democratic electorate. This strong support in the primary has not, according to Crockett and other Democrats, translated into enthusiasm for Talarico’s general election campaign.
The concerns over turnout are not limited to anecdotal reports. Democratic strategists point to polling showing that 34% of Black men in Texas support Donald Trump, highlighting the challenge for Democrats in mobilizing their base and the risk of defections or low turnout in November. With Texas viewed as a critical battleground, the ability to energize Black voters is seen as essential for any Democratic victory.
Talarico’s Outreach and Policy Shifts
In response to criticism, Talarico announced a $25 million get-out-the-vote initiative targeting Black voters in July. He has held town halls in majority-Black areas, including Houston and DeSoto, in an effort to address concerns and build support. At a July 20 event, Talarico faced pointed questions from Black voters about his record and campaign priorities, reflecting ongoing skepticism within the community.
During a town hall in DeSoto, Talarico endorsed reparations for slavery and a federal bill to address police violence, seeking to appeal to racial justice concerns that are important to many Black voters. These policy positions represent a shift in Talarico’s rhetoric as he attempts to broaden his appeal and address criticisms from within the party.
However, Talarico’s recent rhetoric has drawn scrutiny from both allies and opponents. Republican nominee Ken Paxton has criticized Talarico’s support for the George Floyd Act, which sought to end qualified immunity for police officers, and his sponsorship of a bill to ban police contracts with reality TV shows. Paxton accused Talarico of shifting his positions to appeal to different audiences, saying, “He’s going to tell audiences different stories depending on where he’s at.”
Fundraising and Outside Spending
The Texas Senate race is on track to be among the most expensive in the country. Talarico’s campaign raised $30 million in the second quarter, while Paxton’s committee reported over $9 million, the highest single-quarter total for a GOP Senate non-incumbent nationwide. The influx of money has heightened the stakes and drawn national attention to the race.
Democratic strategists have also raised concerns about outside spending, with Elon Musk reportedly pledging nearly $200 million to influence key races, including Texas. This level of outside investment has added another layer of complexity to the contest, as both parties vie for control of the Senate and seek to mobilize their supporters.
Despite Talarico’s fundraising success, Etienne and other Democrats argue that money alone will not be enough if Black voter turnout lags. They emphasize the need for early and sustained engagement with Black communities, warning that a lack of enthusiasm could prove decisive in a race that is expected to be decided by a narrow margin.
Paxton, meanwhile, has consolidated support from Republican donors after his primary runoff victory and is set to campaign on his economic plan in the final stretch before the November 3 general election. Decision Desk HQ has rated the contest a toss-up, with both parties viewing Texas as a critical battleground that could determine control of the Senate.
As the campaign enters its final months, the question of whether Talarico can energize Black voters remains central to Democratic hopes in Texas. The outcome may hinge on the effectiveness of his outreach efforts and the ability of the party to unite its diverse coalition in one of the nation’s most closely watched races.
