Voters in five key battleground states—Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—are set to determine not only their next governors and state legislators this November, but also the future landscape of election rules for the 2028 presidential contest. This is according to a new report released this week by Honest Elections Project Action (HEPA), a group that monitors election policy trends.
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The report underscores that the stakes of the upcoming midterms extend far beyond immediate state leadership. The outcomes could have a lasting impact on how future presidential elections are conducted, particularly in states that have played decisive roles in recent national outcomes.
At the heart of the debate is whether new state trifectas—where a single party controls the governorship and both legislative chambers—will use their power to enact stricter election safeguards or to expand access to voting. Critics of expanded access argue that such measures could undermine election integrity, while supporters say they are necessary to ensure all eligible voters can participate.
HEPA’s analysis, published just days before the midterm elections, highlights how state-level races have become increasingly pivotal in shaping national election policy. The report contends that the results in these five battleground states could set the direction for a range of election-related issues, including voter ID requirements, mail-in voting procedures, voter roll maintenance, and even the allocation of Electoral College votes for years to come.
Competing Election Agendas
The HEPA report details a sharp divide in recent legislative sessions between Republican and Democratic state trifectas. According to the group, Republican-controlled states have advanced laws that require proof of citizenship to vote, strengthen voter ID requirements, clean up voter rolls, and ban ranked-choice voting. These measures, supporters argue, are designed to ensure that only eligible voters participate and that election results are trustworthy.
In contrast, Democratic-controlled trifectas have passed measures aimed at expanding access to the ballot. These include implementing automatic voter registration, expanding mail-in voting options, restricting the use of citizenship data in voter eligibility checks, and limiting the frequency and scope of voter list maintenance. Proponents say these changes are necessary to modernize the voting system and remove barriers that can prevent eligible voters from casting ballots.
Jason Snead, executive director of the Honest Elections Project, stated, "Republican states have taken steps to ensure honest and fair elections for both parties, but every Democratic state trifecta has allowed lax voter regulations that create undue risks for fraud and damage public trust in outcomes. Americans from every state deserve fair and honest elections no matter what political party is in power."
The report claims that Democratic leaders defend their changes as improving access, but HEPA contends these moves amount to a coordinated effort to tilt the electoral playing field. The group warns that if Democrats secure trifectas in the five battlegrounds, it could lead to the adoption of voting rules similar to those in California and Virginia, which the report characterizes as less secure.
Redistricting and Electoral College Implications
Beyond voting procedures, the HEPA report notes that state governments will also control potential mid-decade redistricting. This is particularly significant after several states redrew congressional maps following the Supreme Court’s Callais decision, which barred the use of race as a factor in redistricting. The ability to redraw district lines can influence the balance of political power in Congress for years.
A major national issue at stake is the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. Under this agreement, member states pledge to award their presidential electors to the winner of the national popular vote, rather than the candidate who wins the most votes in their state. The compact is currently 48 electoral votes short of the 270 needed to take effect. HEPA warns that if Democrats win trifectas in the five highlighted states, they could provide the necessary votes to implement the compact before the next presidential election, potentially changing how the Electoral College functions.
Stakes and Responses
HEPA’s report concludes that the pattern between the parties is clear: Republicans have focused on making it harder to cast ineligible ballots and easier to maintain clean voter rolls, while Democrats have worked to expand access and reduce certain safeguards. The group frames the midterms as a referendum on the future of election security and access in the United States.
Supporters of expanded voting access, including many Democratic leaders, have consistently argued that their reforms are necessary to remove barriers for eligible voters and to modernize outdated systems. They contend that measures such as automatic voter registration and expanded mail-in voting are vital for ensuring broad participation in democracy. The HEPA report, however, does not include direct responses from Democratic officials to its criticisms.
Voters in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin will cast ballots for both legislative and gubernatorial offices this November. The outcome is likely to determine the direction of election laws in these states and could influence the potential for changes to the Electoral College system in the next presidential cycle. As the report emphasizes, decisions made at the state level in 2024 could shape the rules and procedures for the 2028 presidential election and beyond, making these midterms especially consequential for the future of American democracy.
