A new report from the Honest Elections Project Action warns that state legislative races this election cycle could have a significant impact on the future of U.S. presidential elections. According to the report, the results of these state contests may determine whether the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC) reaches the 270 electoral votes needed to take effect. If that threshold is met, it could fundamentally change how the United States elects its presidents for decades to come.

The outcome of these legislative races could decide whether future presidential elections continue to be governed by the Electoral College system or shift to a national popular vote model. The report notes that this shift would also have broad implications for other election laws, including those related to voter identification, noncitizen voting, and ranked-choice voting.

The report, released one week before the midterm elections, highlights recent developments in the movement toward a national popular vote. After Virginia joined the compact, the total electoral votes controlled by participating states rose to 222. This leaves the compact just 48 electoral votes short of the 270 needed for activation. The report identifies five battleground states—Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Arizona—as especially pivotal. These states, which together hold 61 electoral votes, are described as leaning Democratic in their current legislative races. The report argues that if Democrats secure full control, or trifectas, in these states, the compact could be triggered, shifting the allocation of electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote rather than the winner in each state.

The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact is an agreement among participating states to award all their electoral votes to the candidate who wins the national popular vote. However, the compact only takes effect if enough states join to reach a combined total of 270 electoral votes—the minimum needed to win the presidency. The Honest Elections Project Action report emphasizes that the compact is closer to activation than ever before, especially following Virginia's recent entry. The report suggests that the legislative outcomes in key states could "decide what rules will govern the 2028 presidential election," underscoring the importance of this year's state legislative races.

Virginia as a Model

Virginia is highlighted in the report as a case study of how a shift in legislative control can affect election laws. After Democrats gained full control of the state government in January, several significant changes were enacted. Virginia expanded the use of ranked-choice voting, reinforced a law allowing mail ballots to arrive up to three days after Election Day, enacted a new legislative map, and joined the National Popular Vote Compact. Additionally, Virginia made ranked-choice voting a permanent option for local elections, though it has not yet been adopted statewide.

The Honest Elections Project Action report describes these changes as a preview of what could happen in other states if Democrats gain legislative control. The report states: "Virginia’s experience in 2026 shows what comes next: Within months of taking full control in January, Democrats expanded ranked-choice voting, reinforced a law allowing mail ballots to arrive three days late, rammed an unconstitutional gerrymander through the legislature, and joined the National Popular Vote scheme to get around the Electoral College."

Partisan Approaches to Election Law

The report contrasts the approaches of Republican- and Democratic-controlled states to election law. According to the Honest Elections Project Action, Republican-led legislatures have focused on verifying citizenship, cleaning voter rolls, strengthening voter ID laws, and banning ranked-choice voting. In contrast, states where Democrats control the legislature and governorship have enacted policies such as automatic voter registration, expanded mail-in voting, and limits on the use of citizenship data by local officials.

Jason Snead, executive director of the Honest Elections Project, commented, "The stakes are high for election integrity this November." Democrats argue that their measures are designed to protect voting rights and expand access to the ballot, while Republicans say their efforts are aimed at ensuring election security and preventing fraud.

This year, 44 states enacted a total of 419 election-related laws by August 14. Of these, 223 were passed by Republican trifectas—states where Republicans control both legislative chambers and the governorship—while 158 were passed by Democratic trifectas.

Competing Perspectives on Voting Laws

A separate report from the Brennan Center for Justice and the University of California at Berkeley Democracy Lab offers a different perspective on recent changes to voting laws. According to their analysis, more expansive voting legislation was passed this year than restrictive measures. The Brennan-Berkeley report criticized new proof of citizenship laws enacted in Mississippi, South Dakota, and Utah, arguing that such laws could make it harder for eligible voters to participate. At the same time, the report praised new laws in states like Colorado, Maryland, New Jersey, Virginia, and Washington that expanded the grounds for voters to sue under state voting rights acts.

"Overall, states continue to pass more laws expanding access to voting than those restricting access," the Brennan-Berkeley report stated.

This year’s elections are particularly significant, with 36 governorships and 88 legislative chambers on the ballot. However, the report notes that most of these races are not considered highly competitive. Still, the outcome in a handful of battleground states could have a lasting impact on how presidential elections are conducted in the United States, especially if the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reaches the 270-vote threshold and changes the way electoral votes are allocated in future contests.