The Trump administration has introduced a proposed rule that would require the U.S. Census Bureau to count only U.S. citizens and lawful permanent residents for congressional apportionment in the 2030 Census, excluding unauthorized immigrants and most other noncitizens from the population totals used to allocate House seats and Electoral College votes.

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The proposal escalates a longstanding dispute over whether noncitizens should be included in the figures that determine political representation, with significant implications for states with large immigrant populations.

This move follows years of legal and political battles over census methodology. The administration's new approach comes after previous efforts to exclude certain noncitizen groups by executive action were blocked or left unresolved by the courts, most notably in Trump v. New York, which the Supreme Court dismissed on procedural grounds before the last census.

Details of the Proposed Rule

According to the proposed rule, the Census Bureau would modify its "residence criteria" so that only U.S. citizens and green card holders are counted at their usual residence for apportionment purposes. The rule would exclude unauthorized immigrants and most other noncitizens, arguing that only those with "allegiance, durable permission from the sovereign to settle with the United States, and establishment of domicile" qualify as persons entitled to representation.

The administration cites two main justifications: a constitutional argument that unauthorized immigrants are not "persons" for apportionment, and a legal argument that the Bureau has the discretion to set residence criteria, as recognized in Supreme Court cases such as Franklin v. Massachusetts and Wisconsin v. City of New York. The rule notes that the Bureau has changed its criteria in the past based on operational needs and legal interpretations.

The proposal also references the Bureau's expanded access to federal, state, and commercial data sources, which officials say will allow for more accurate identification and separation of citizens, legal residents, and other noncitizen groups. The rule contemplates the possible addition of a census question on legal status, reviving a debate from the previous administration.

The administration anticipates legal challenges to the rule, as similar efforts have previously faced lawsuits from states and advocacy groups. In Trump v. New York, the Supreme Court did not rule on the merits, citing standing and ripeness issues, but justices raised practical questions about the identification and exclusion of noncitizens. The new rule claims to address these concerns by detailing the Bureau's improved data infrastructure and intent to exclude all but citizens and lawful permanent residents.

Supporters of the change argue it would "restore the 'one man, one vote' principle" and reduce the political influence of jurisdictions with large unauthorized immigrant populations. The rule asserts that counting only citizens and green card holders would prevent "dilution of Americans’ voting power" and "neutralize foreign influence."

"The Census Bureau therefore now has access to substantially more information than it did when it conducted the 2020 Census, and the Census Bureau expects to continue obtaining additional information moving forward."

— Proposed rule text

Critics of similar past efforts have argued that excluding noncitizens would undercount millions of residents, distort representation, and violate constitutional and statutory requirements. The proposed rule does not include responses from opponents or Democratic officials, and it remains unclear how legal challenges will proceed.

Next Steps and Unresolved Questions

The Federal Register lists the proposed rule as open for public comment. If finalized, the policy is expected to face immediate lawsuits. The outcome may depend on whether courts accept the administration's constitutional and statutory arguments, and whether the Bureau's data systems can reliably distinguish between citizens, lawful permanent residents, and other noncitizens.

The rule's future could also hinge on whether subsequent administrations maintain or reverse the policy, as the 2030 Census will occur after the current administration's term. The rule's authors acknowledge that "how it will go about identifying and excluding non-citizen classes from the apportionment base; and if it can resolve these matters in court and ensure the next administration maintains these policies... remain open questions."