A new study released by the medical watchdog group Do No Harm finds that state laws restricting transgender-related medical procedures for minors do not lead to increased suicide rates among teenagers. This directly challenges claims made by some advocacy groups and prior research that have suggested such restrictions could endanger vulnerable youth by increasing the risk of suicide.
Explainer Transgender Rights and Policies: A Comprehensive Overview of Ongoing Debates
The findings add fuel to an already heated debate over whether limiting access to gender-affirming care for minors has an impact on youth suicide. Both supporters and opponents of these laws point to conflicting studies and data, making the issue a central point of contention in legislative battles across the United States.
In recent years, multiple states have enacted or considered laws that limit access to puberty blockers, cross-sex hormones, and transgender surgeries for individuals under the age of 18. Proponents of these measures argue that they are necessary to protect children from making irreversible medical decisions at a young age. Critics, however, contend that such restrictions put transgender youth at risk by denying them care that could be vital for their mental health and well-being.
Do No Harm’s Findings
The Do No Harm study analyzed government mortality data on completed suicides among minors, focusing on states that have enacted and implemented bans on transgender medical interventions. Researchers used data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Kaiser Family Foundation to track suicide rates by age and state. Importantly, the study only considered policy changes that had actually gone into effect, rather than those that were merely proposed or temporarily blocked by courts.
According to the report, the researchers employed three different statistical models to assess the impact of these laws. All three models found no evidence that state adoption of bans on gender interventions for minors affected suicide rates among people aged 15-19 or 13-17. The study’s authors concluded that there is no statistical link between the implementation of these restrictions and an increase in completed suicides among teenagers.
Jay Greene, director of research at Do No Harm, stated, "The alarmist claim that protecting children from sex-rejecting procedures increases suicide is false." He argued that the evidence does not support the assertion that these laws put young people at greater risk of taking their own lives.
Ian Kingsbury, senior director at Do No Harm’s Center for Accountability in Medicine and a co-author of the study, was also critical of previous research on the topic. He said that the widely cited claim that such restrictions would cause a spike in suicide rates "rests on a mass of shoddy and dishonest research." Kingsbury accused advocacy groups of using flawed studies to "scare parents into letting their children undergo irreversible sterilizing procedures."
Criticism of Prior Research
The Do No Harm report specifically challenges a 2024 study by The Trevor Project, which was published in the journal Nature Human Behaviour. That study found that state-level laws restricting transgender rights were associated with up to a 72% increase in past-year suicide attempts among transgender and nonbinary youth. However, the Do No Harm authors argue that the Trevor Project’s findings relied heavily on a small subsample in Idaho, where the relevant laws had not yet taken effect due to court injunctions.
A peer-reviewed critique published in Nature Human Behaviour in May also questioned the methodology of the Trevor Project study. The critique noted that the 72% figure was based on roughly 60 adolescents per year in Idaho, and that the laws in question were blocked by federal courts or existing injunctions during the study period. This, according to critics, raises questions about whether the study’s findings can be generalized to other states or to situations where laws are actually in effect.
The Trevor Project has defended its research, stating that it stands by the findings and maintains that "anti-transgender" laws increase suicide risk among young people. The group also argues that the influence of such laws can extend beyond their formal enactment, affecting public debate and school policies even when the laws are blocked in court.
Ongoing Debate Over Mental Health Impact
Advocates for transgender youth continue to argue that access to gender-affirming care is necessary to improve mental health and reduce suicide risk. They point to studies and personal testimonies suggesting that such care can be life-saving for some young people. However, the Do No Harm study points out that, when questioned before the Supreme Court, ACLU attorney Chase Strangio distinguished between completed suicides and broader measures of suicidality, such as ideation and attempts. Strangio declined to assert that medical interventions reduce completed suicides, highlighting the complexity of measuring the impact of these policies.
Jay Greene of Do No Harm emphasized the importance of relying on rigorous data, stating, "Medical practice and policy must be grounded in evidence, not emotionally manipulative talking points." He argued that decisions about children’s health should be based on sound research rather than anecdotal evidence or emotional appeals.
Despite the new findings, The Trevor Project maintains its position, stating that its 2024 study remains valid and credible. The organization continues to advocate against laws restricting transgender medical care for minors, arguing that such restrictions pose a threat to the mental health and well-being of transgender youth.
