A majority of Americans, including more than half of surveyed Democrats, support restricting the allocation of U.S. House seats to citizens only, according to a new poll released as the Commerce Department weighs a rule that would exclude noncitizens from congressional apportionment counts.

The debate over who should be counted for congressional representation has intensified in recent years, with significant implications for the distribution of political power among states and the allocation of federal resources. Under current practice, the Census Bureau counts all residents, regardless of citizenship or immigration status, when determining how many House seats each state receives. Some lawmakers and advocacy groups argue that this approach gives disproportionate representation to states with large noncitizen populations and dilutes the voting power of citizens in other states.

The issue has been the subject of ongoing legal and political battles. The first Trump administration attempted to exclude unauthorized immigrants from the apportionment count and sought to add a citizenship question to the 2020 census. Both efforts faced legal challenges, with the Supreme Court ultimately blocking the citizenship question on procedural grounds in 2019, though the Court found the question itself constitutional.

New Poll Results

A McLaughlin & Associates survey conducted on September 23 among 1,000 likely voters found that 65 percent believe congressional apportionment should be based solely on the number of U.S. citizens in each state. The poll, commissioned by the conservative FAIR Election Fund, reported that 54 percent of Democrats and nearly 60 percent of independents supported this approach, along with four in five Republicans. The findings suggest that the idea of excluding noncitizens from apportionment has bipartisan support among the American public.

The poll also found that 75 percent of likely voters, including nearly two-thirds of Democrats, favor adding a citizenship question to the census. Supporters argue that such a question would allow for more accurate efforts to exclude noncitizens from the apportionment base. Cleta Mitchell, chair of the FAIR Election Fund, said the data "reflects that this is what the American people expect the Census Bureau to do."

Proposed Rule and Census Practices

Just days before the poll’s release, the Commerce Department proposed a rule that would count only U.S. citizens and green card holders in the population numbers used to allocate House seats. This would mark a significant change from the Census Bureau’s current “residence criteria,” which counts all residents regardless of immigration status. Critics of the current system argue it has led to disproportionate representation for states with large noncitizen populations and diluted the influence of citizens’ votes.

The proposed rule also suggests that the Census Bureau may add a question to determine respondents’ legal status. While the decennial census currently does not ask about citizenship, the Census Bureau does collect citizenship information through its American Community Survey, as detailed in Census Bureau documentation.

Confidence in Census Accuracy

The McLaughlin poll also revealed concerns about the accuracy of future censuses. According to the survey, 52 percent of respondents lack confidence that the 2030 census will be accurate. This skepticism is partly tied to the use of statistical methods such as “differential privacy” in the 2020 census. Differential privacy, as described in a Census Bureau factsheet, is a technique that introduces statistical noise to protect individual confidentiality. However, some critics argue that it can distort local population counts and undermine the constitutional requirement for an “actual enumeration.”

Trey Mayfield, a former counsel to the Census Bureau director, testified that differential privacy “adds fake people where they do not live and subtracts real people from where they do live.” He contends that this undermines the accuracy and reliability of census data used for apportionment.

In response to such concerns, the Commerce Department issued an order earlier this year stating that "noise infusion" is inconsistent with department policies and should not be used for statistical products. However, some groups, such as the Center for Renewing America, argue that the reform does not fully address the underlying issues related to census accuracy and data integrity.

The Trump administration’s earlier attempts to exclude unauthorized immigrants from apportionment and to add a citizenship question were met with legal challenges. In a 2019 decision authored by Chief Justice John Roberts, the Supreme Court found the citizenship question constitutional but ruled that the administration’s process for adding it was legally deficient, ultimately blocking its inclusion in the 2020 census.

The Commerce Department’s current proposal to change the apportionment base has drawn support from election integrity advocates, who argue that counting only citizens and legal permanent residents would better reflect the will of the American people. However, supporters of counting all residents, regardless of citizenship, have not yet issued a formal response to the proposed rule. The Census Bureau continues to provide information about citizenship questions and census methodology on its official website.

The Commerce Department’s proposed rule is now open for public comment, with final decisions expected after the review period concludes. The outcome could have significant ramifications for how congressional representation is determined and how federal resources are distributed in the coming decade.