NJ Governor Race Tests Effectiveness Of GOP Ground Game

President Donald Trump's 2024 victory was bolstered by a robust ground game, and this year's gubernatorial elections, particularly in New Jersey, will serve as a critical test of whether that strategy can be sustained beyond the presidential race. In previous elections, Republicans struggled with mail-in voting, particularly in Pennsylvania, where Trump garnered only 20% of mail-in votes in 2020. Recognizing the need for improvement, the Republican Party focused on mail-in ballots for the 2024 election, resulting in a significant increase to 34.5% against Vice President Kamala Harris, according to Citizens Alliance CEO Cliff Maloney.

In response to the challenges faced in past elections, Citizens Alliance launched a New Jersey version of its successful Pennsylvania program, known as the New Jersey Chase, on August 4. This initiative employs 105 full-time ballot-chasers who are tasked with encouraging Republican voters to request mail-in ballots and participate in the upcoming election. Maloney noted that the program aims to remind voters to return their ballots, employing a strategy that he humorously refers to as a 'reminder campaign.'

The New Jersey GOP has historically lacked a strong ground game, with Sussex County Republican Chairman Joseph LaBarbera acknowledging that previous efforts were minimal. In the 2021 elections, there were no recorded door knocks in his county for Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli, despite achieving a 65% turnout among registered Republicans. LaBarbera attributed this lack of engagement to a demoralized Republican base following the tenure of former Governor Chris Christie, who he believes weakened the party's standing in the state.

Ciattarelli, a former assemblyman, is running against Democrat U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill. LaBarbera expressed optimism about Ciattarelli's chances, noting that Sherrill's support largely comes from the Democratic National Committee, while Ciattarelli has garnered endorsements from several Democratic mayors. As of October 1, New Jersey's voter registration showed 2,525,346 registered Democrats compared to 1,670,297 registered Republicans, highlighting the uphill battle for the GOP in a state with a significant Democratic majority.

The effectiveness of the ground game is underscored by the need to mobilize registered Republicans, as data indicates that a higher turnout among this group is crucial for Ciattarelli's success. Michael Pruser, a data analyst at Decision Desk HQ, has been tracking mail ballot returns, revealing that as of October 17, nearly 42% of mail ballots requested by Republicans had been returned, compared to 41% for Democrats. However, Democrats have a substantial lead in total ballots requested and returned.

Swing voters, who are critical in determining the election outcome, have requested 213,000 mail ballots but have returned only 50,522, indicating a lower engagement rate. Maloney emphasized the importance of making Ciattarelli competitive with mail-in voting, suggesting that if he can maintain turnout levels from 2021 on Election Day, he could emerge victorious.

The New Jersey Chase program has already knocked on over 330,000 doors, with a goal of reaching 500,000 by Election Day. The initiative is part of a broader effort by the New Jersey GOP to enhance voter engagement and turnout, particularly among registered Republicans who have historically been less active in ground campaigns. As the election approaches, the effectiveness of these strategies will be closely monitored, with both parties recognizing the significance of swing voters in a state where the Republican Party has faced challenges in recent years.