U.S. Murder Rate Falls to Lowest Level in 125 Years Amid Changing Crime Trends

What's happening

The United States is experiencing a historic decline in its murder rate, with recent data indicating it is on track to reach the lowest level recorded in 125 years. According to a report from the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ), nine out of 13 major offenses tracked showed double-digit decreases from 2024 to 2025. This shift suggests a broad change in crime patterns across the country, marking a significant development in public safety metrics. The report's findings have sparked widespread discussion about the factors driving this decline and the implications for law enforcement policies nationwide.

The CCJ's Year-End 2025 Update projects a 21% reduction in the murder rate compared to the previous year, equating to roughly 922 fewer homicides in the 35 cities studied. Alongside homicides, other violent crimes such as aggravated assaults, gun assaults, and carjackings also saw notable decreases. However, drug-related offenses bucked the trend, experiencing a rise during the same period. These mixed results highlight the complexity of crime dynamics and the challenges in attributing changes to any single cause or policy intervention.

One prominent explanation for the decline centers on federal immigration enforcement efforts. Supporters argue that removing unauthorized immigrants with criminal records from communities has contributed to enhanced public safety. Department of Homeland Security officials reported tracking approximately 435,000 unauthorized immigrants with criminal convictions as of September 2024, including nearly 29,000 convicted of serious offenses like murder and sexual assault. Advocates for stricter immigration enforcement point to these figures as evidence that targeting individuals with criminal histories helps reduce crime rates.

What's at stake

Despite these claims, the relationship between immigration enforcement and crime reduction remains contested. Critics caution against oversimplifying the issue, noting that multiple factors likely influence crime trends. Adam Gelb, CEO of the CCJ, emphasized the difficulty in isolating the precise drivers behind the drop in violent crime, suggesting that economic conditions, community policing strategies, and other local initiatives also play critical roles. Additionally, some local law enforcement agencies have resisted federal requests to detain unauthorized immigrants, complicating narratives that credit federal policies alone for the decline.

City-specific trends offer further insight into the evolving crime landscape. For example, Memphis, a city historically challenged by high crime rates, reported a 44% decrease in crime during the fourth quarter of 2025, including significant drops in car thefts and homicides. The presence of the National Guard in Memphis has been welcomed by local residents and business owners, who view the increased law enforcement presence as a positive step toward maintaining safety. Similar reductions in homicide rates have been observed in Denver and Washington, D.C., cities that also had National Guard deployments during 2025.

These developments have fueled debate over the effectiveness of various law enforcement approaches. Supporters of the current administration, including Republican National Committee National Press Secretary Kiersten Pels, credit a renewed focus on law and order for the improvements. They argue that reversing years of perceived leniency toward crime has yielded tangible results. Conversely, opponents question whether such policies address underlying social issues or merely shift crime patterns temporarily. The ongoing dialogue reflects broader tensions about the balance between enforcement, community trust, and criminal justice reform.

Looking ahead, the FBI is expected to release nationwide crime data later this year, which will provide a more comprehensive picture of the trends observed in the CCJ report. Early indications suggest the national homicide rate could fall to about 4.0 per 100,000 residents, the lowest since 1900. This milestone will likely intensify discussions about the factors contributing to crime reduction and the sustainability of current policies. Policymakers, law enforcement officials, and community leaders will be closely watching these developments to inform future strategies aimed at maintaining public safety while addressing the root causes of crime.

Why it matters

Nine out of 13 major crime categories saw double-digit declines, signaling a broad shift in crime trends. Federal immigration enforcement is credited by some with reducing crime by removing individuals with criminal records. Resistance from local law enforcement to federal detainer requests complicates the narrative around immigration policies and crime.

National Guard deployments in cities like Memphis have coincided with significant drops in violent crime. The decline in murder rates affects public safety perceptions and policy debates nationwide.

Key facts & context

The U.S. murder rate is projected to be the lowest in 125 years according to the Council on Criminal Justice. Nine out of 13 tracked offenses showed double-digit declines from 2024 to 2025. The CCJ report estimates approximately 922 fewer homicides in 35 cities studied between 2024 and 2025.

Drug-related crimes increased during the same period despite declines in other offenses. Department of Homeland Security tracked about 435,000 unauthorized immigrants with criminal convictions in 2024. Nearly 29,000 of these unauthorized immigrants were convicted of serious crimes such as murder and sexual assault.

Some local police departments have declined to cooperate with federal immigration detainer requests. Memphis reported a 44% drop in crime in late 2025, with National Guard presence welcomed by the community. Denver and Washington, D.C. also saw homicide declines of around 40%, coinciding with National Guard deployments.

The FBI is expected to release nationwide crime data later in 2026, potentially confirming the historic low homicide rate.

Timeline & key developments

2026-01-23: U.S. Murder Rate Declines to Historic Low Amid Policy Changes. Additional reporting on this topic is available in our broader archive and will continue to shape this timeline as new developments emerge.

Primary sources

• simpson.house.gov document
• pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov document

Further reading & references

• (Additional background links will appear here as we cover this topic.)