TLT Explains

CBO Estimates 10 Million More Uninsured by 2034 Due to New Legislation

By The Liberty Tribune Staff

Published: 9/16/2025 · Updated: 9/16/2025 · 5 min read

The CBO projects that new legislation will leave 10 million more Americans uninsured by 2034, primarily affecting Medicaid and Medicare.

What's happening

CBO Estimates 10 Million More Uninsured by 2034 Due to New Legislation — The recent agreement between the Trump administration and pharmaceutical companies Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk aims to expand affordable coverage for obesity drugs, a move that has been met with both praise and skepticism. While the initiative is expected to lower the prices of popular drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy, critics argue that the deal may ultimately benefit the pharmaceutical companies more than consumers. Explainer Trump Administration Reassesses Approach to Sanctuary Officials What the Trump obesity drug deal promises The announced that prices for Ozempic and Wegovy would decrease significantly, from $1,000 and $1,350 per month to $350 through a new direct-to-consumer platform called TrumpRx, set to launch next year. Additionally, Medicare prices for these drugs are projected to be $245, which is less than half of the prices proposed by the Biden administration. Supporters of the agreement argue that it could give uninsured or underinsured patients access to treatments that were previously out of reach, potentially improving for millions of Americans struggling with obesity. Why analysts say Big Pharma still comes out ahead However, a Wall Street Journal analysis suggests that these advertised discounts may not reflect the true cost dynamics in the pharmaceutical market. The effective prices that pharmaceutical companies receive after accounting for rebates and discounts are reportedly only 20% to 35% lower than current Medicare payments for Mounjaro, a drug used for diabetes. The direct-to-consumer model is expected to benefit those without insurance coverage for GLP-1 drugs, who currently face inflated prices. Yet, the pharmaceutical companies may only experience a modest reduction in net revenue. Analysts note that the companies are shifting their profit strategy from high margins on fewer customers to lower margins on a larger customer base, which could ultimately enhance their market position. Democrats, led by Senator Amy Klobuchar, are urging Congressional Republicans to extend enhanced health insurance subsidies as part of negotiations to end the ongoing government shutdown.

What's at stake

The shutdown, which began on October 1, has raised concerns for millions of Americans who rely on subsidies to afford health insurance premiums. Explainer CBO Estimates Billions Lost to Obamacare Exchange Fraud Klobuchar highlighted the plight of early retirees Bill and Shelly Gall, who could see their monthly health insurance premiums rise from $442 to $1,700 if the subsidies are not extended. "That’s an extra $15K a year families can’t afford," Klobuchar stated in a recent tweet. Approximately 22 million Americans enrolled in the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace, representing about 92% of all enrollees, are at risk of facing higher premiums in 2026 if the subsidies are not renewed, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF), a nonpartisan health policy research group. Democrats argue that these subsidies make health insurance premiums more affordable for individuals. However, critics contend that subsidies do not lower the actual cost of insurance; rather, they redistribute the financial burden from individuals to taxpayers. The subsidies effectively obscure the true cost of premiums, which remain unchanged. Klobuchar's assertion that the Galls will experience a drastic increase in their premiums has been met with skepticism. Critics argue that the real issue is not the cost of insurance for individuals but rather who bears the financial responsibility for those costs.

A preliminary audit by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) revealed that five states and Washington, D.C., directed over $1.35 billion in federal Medicaid funding to undocumented immigrants. California accounted for the majority of this expenditure, spending more than $1.3 billion alone in recent months, according to CMS Administrator Dr. Explainer CBO Estimates 10 Million More Uninsured by 2034 Due to New Legislation The audit has sparked debate over the legality and ethics of using federal Medicaid funds for undocumented immigrants, a practice that some argue violates federal law. Each state reportedly allocated millions to provide Medicaid services to undocumented individuals, raising concerns among critics about the impact on American taxpayers. Oz criticized the actions of these states, suggesting they are defrauding the American public. He noted that while the law does not prohibit states from using their own funds for undocumented immigrants, should not be used for this purpose. “Some want to deny that are receiving Medicaid. Others insist it’s illegal for Medicaid to cover illegal immigrants,” Oz stated, emphasizing the complexity of the issue. The states involved in this funding include California, Illinois, Washington, Colorado, and Oregon. What to watch next is whether new filings, agency actions, votes, or court decisions change the timeline—and how officials respond in the weeks ahead.

Why it matters

The coverage highlights: Why Trump's Obesity Drug 'Deal' Will Help Big Pharma Most Of All. The coverage highlights: Democrats Advocate for Extended Health Insurance Subsidies Amid Government Shutdown. The coverage highlights: Five States and D.C. Allocated $1.4 Billion in Federal Medicaid Funds to Undocumented Immigrants. The coverage highlights: Congress Faces Decision on Enhanced Obamacare Subsidies. The coverage highlights: Hospitals Use Electronic Medical Records To Coax Children Into Gender 'Transition'. The coverage highlights: Senate Democrats Block Government Funding Amid Controversy Over Healthcare for Illegal Immigrants.

Key facts & context

2025-11-25: Why Trump's Obesity Drug 'Deal' Will Help Big Pharma Most Of All. 2025-11-05: Democrats Advocate for Extended Health Insurance Subsidies Amid Government Shutdown. 2025-10-31: Five States and D.C. Allocated $1.4 Billion in Federal Medicaid Funds to Undocumented Immigrants. 2025-10-30: Congress Faces Decision on Enhanced Obamacare Subsidies. 2025-10-28: Hospitals Use Electronic Medical Records To Coax Children Into Gender 'Transition'. 2025-10-09: Senate Democrats Block Government Funding Amid Controversy Over Healthcare for Illegal Immigrants. 2025-10-02: Government Shutdown Sparks Debate Over Health Care for Paroled Immigrants. 2025-10-02: Dems Pretend They Don't Want Medicaid For Millions Of Migrants. 2025-10-01: Democrats Opt for Government Shutdown Over Health Care Restrictions for Noncitizens. 2025-09-25: Audit Reveals Medicaid Spending Increases Under Biden Administration.

Timeline & key developments

Primary sources

Www.cdc — cdc.gov