Could Parental Rights Decide Virginia's 2025 Gubernatorial Race?

As Virginia approaches its 2025 gubernatorial election, the issue of parental rights is resurfacing as a potential decisive factor, reminiscent of the 2021 race that saw Republican Glenn Youngkin emerge victorious against Democrat Terry McAuliffe. Youngkin’s campaign gained momentum from parental discontent regarding COVID-19 restrictions, educational content, and gender policies in schools, which galvanized a movement advocating for greater transparency and accountability in education.

Currently, Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears is vying for the governorship against former Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger. The backdrop of their contest includes several controversies within Northern Virginia public school districts, particularly in Fairfax County, where allegations surfaced that staff at Centreville High School facilitated abortions for students without parental consent. The Fairfax County Public Schools has initiated an investigation, while Virginia State Police are also probing the claims.

In Loudoun County, the district’s policies regarding transgender students have reignited public outrage. Recently, two male students at Stone Bridge High School were suspended for questioning the presence of a female student who identifies as male in the boys’ locker room. This incident has drawn attention to the broader implications of school policies on parental rights and student safety, with five Virginia school districts facing potential loss of federal funding for not revoking such policies.

Polling data indicates that Earle-Sears has struggled to generate the grassroots enthusiasm necessary to compete effectively in a state that leans Democratic. Spanberger has consistently led in voter surveys, and the challenges faced by candidates from the party in power at the federal level often complicate their prospects in off-year elections.

However, the recent controversies surrounding public schools may provide a pivotal opportunity for Earle-Sears and the Republican Party to rally support. On August 20, 2025, Earle-Sears participated in a protest outside Stone Bridge High School, expressing her opposition to the suspension of the students and calling for a return to traditional definitions of gender. “It is time for the insanity to stop. Girls are girls, and boys are boys,” she stated, emphasizing the need for common-sense policies in schools.

Earle-Sears is expected to address the Arlington County School Board regarding similar transgender policies, advocating for legislation that would enforce sex-based bathroom use and restrict male participation in women’s sports. In contrast, Spanberger has refrained from denouncing such policies, having previously labeled Youngkin’s approach as “shameful” and voting in favor of allowing boys to compete in girls’ sports.

The parental rights movement, which played a crucial role in the 2021 elections, may once again shape the political landscape in Virginia. Earle-Sears and her supporters must effectively channel the public’s concerns over educational policies to gain traction in the upcoming election. Failure to capitalize on these issues could result in a resurgence of the policies that many parents have opposed, potentially diminishing Republican representation in statewide offices.

Shawn Fleetwood is a staff writer for The Federalist and a graduate of the University of Mary Washington. He has contributed to various outlets, including RealClearPolitics and Conservative Review.